Convection Update: MCS over the Central U.S.

Already this morning, the NearCasting model was indicating a large swath of instability in the direct path of the MCS over MO. As the line of non-severe convection continued to move into this area, it began to intensify. A severe thunderstorm watch was issued around 1700 UTC, and multiple high wind reports were noted in southern MO and northern AR. Additionally, the Overshooting Top (OT) algorithm was consistently picking up multiple detections at the leading edge of the line. The NearCasting model continues to indicate an area of instability south of this line and we anticipate some further intensification.

120611 1200 UTC base reflectivity

120611 1700 UTC NearCasting model

120611 1702 UTC base reflectivity

Given the broad area encompassed by this MCS, there have been many flight route disruptions from Kansas City Center to St. Louis and Memphis Centers, and particularly all southern gates from Chicago Center. Note the congestion of flight routes over Indiana due to the multitude of reroutes from this developing bow echo. As this line continues to advance, more traffic constraints and route closures are expected.

120611 1902 UTC OT detection and VIS