Week 2 of the AWC Summer Experiment started with rumbles of thunder in our own backyard! A broad MCS is currently edging away from Kansas City and moving slowly towards St. Louis Center. Our first area of interest is just south of this convection, in TX and AR, where skies are still clear. The NearCasting is showing a large area of fairly significant mid-level instability over eastern TX and OK, and all of AR. Additionally, the synthetic IR image is indicating initiation around 2100 UTC. The WRF/HRRR lightning threat is showing the most significant areas of lightning in NE TX and northern AR beginning at 2000 UTC forecast hour and continuing through 2200 UTC.
Our other area of the interest is north, associated with the advancing cold front in the Midwest. The NearCasting model, while slowly being overtaken by a large area of cloud contamination, is showing some instability ahead of the front, extending from central IL and IN, up through the Chicago area and SW MI. The synthetic IR imagery is forecasting initiation between 1800 and 2000 UTC. Our particular concern here is the potential for traffic constrains at Chicago Center if in fact convection does initiate.
Additionally, we will be keeping an eye on the SE US, particularly the deep South and the northern half of the Florida peninsula. While convection is currently ongoing north of this area, there may be additional scattered initiation between 1700 and 1800 UTC. The NearCasting Model is showing some mid-level stability through the afternoon, which may inhibit convective development, but the HRRR lightning forecast shows some lightning threat at 1800 UTC and the synthetic IR imagery show scattered development beginning at 1800 UTC.
 |
| 120611 1600 UTC NearCasting Model |
 |
| 120611 1800 UTC synthetic IR imagery |
 |
| 120611 1800 UTC HRRR lightning threat forecast |
 |
| 120611 2000 UTC synthetic IR imagery |
 |
| 120611 2000 UTC HRRR lightning threat forecast |
No comments:
Post a Comment