Morning Weather Watch Outlook: 6/12/12

Like yesterday, we have two main areas of focus for this afternoon. Mainly, we will be keeping an eye on TX. There is currently convection going on over the Amarillo area, and also east into Lousiana, remnants of the previous day's MCS. While there is not a significantly strong surface forcing, there is a broad EML plume over the area due to the boundaries of the leftover convection. Additionally, the NearCasting model is showing some instability, and we do anticipate some initiation along the boundaries of the ongoing convection, with potential traffic constraint particularly western routes into Fort Worth Center.

We will also be monitoring the southern Great Lakes. Currently there is a broad area of showers and embedded thunderstorms advancing through the Northeast, but our interest lies more in the potential for initiation on the western side of this precipitation, particularly in eastern OH and western PA. The HRRR lightning threat is showing a more intense area of lightning around 1800 UTC. We anticipate initiation around this time, and while it does not look to be particularly intense, there is the potential for traffic constrains in the area, particularly routes from Chicago to the East Coast.

120612 1502 UTC Morning Weather Watch Outlook