CI and CTC aid in issuance of AWS near Houston on 8/20

Late yesterday afternoon the NAM desk was monitoring the convection developing along the coast of southern Texas associated with the sea breeze front. As it was possible that it may impact the eastern gates out of Houston Center, it was decided that an AWS should be issued. The GOES-R CI and CTC were both used to help pinpoint specific areas of concern within this statement.

Shown below in Figure 1 is the CI from 1302 - 1832 UTC overlaid with the 1545 UTC AWS. Note the higher probabilities along the northern portion of the Texas coast as well as the Louisana coast.

Figure 1. 20130820 1302 - 1832 UTC GOES-R CI and 1545 UTC Aviation Weather Statement

Now take a look at the CTC shown in Figure 2.

Figure 2. 20130820 1302 - 1832 CTC

Following the higher probability CI signals there was in fact development, however, as noted in the CTC loop, there were very few cooling signals along the Texas coast. This suggests that while there was convective activity perhaps requiring some minor diverts, there weren't any rapidly developing, or robust updrafts associated with any of the activity.