Wednesday, August 19, 2015

GOES-R Convective Initiation and CAWS amendments

In current AWC operations amendments are not issued for the Collaborative Aviation Weather Statements (CAWS). However, that is one concept that is being explored during the Summer Experiment, and would be a place in which products like the GOES-R CI and CTC could become useful. Below is an example from today.

This morning's CAWs over New England included an area of scattered tops over western PA and northern WV/VA/MD, with another area just west the New York area terminals. These tops were expected to develop after 16Z and continue to 20Z and after. By 1545 UTC, the GOES-R was indicating signals of 60% in the first threat area and just east of it.

20150819 1400 - 1715 UTC GOES-R CI and the CAWS issued ~1430 UTC
Those 60% signals (seen in yellow in the loop above), particularly in eastern MD, developed into echoes shortly thereafter. At ~1815 UTC, participants at the CAWS desk decided to issue an amendment to include those areas.

20150819 1815 UTC CAWS amendment
If it decided that amendments would be value in AWC operations, products like the CI would be able to provide valuable situational awareness to forecasters advising the air traffic managers. Despite that the short lead time would make it more reactionary in nature, the extra information on location and likelihood of initiation would be very useful in determining where impact may be the greatest.

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