IFR probs + radar + model = a very interesting concept ceiling grids and decision support

While the GOES-R Fog and Low Stratus algorithms weren't a main focus of evaluation this week, they have still been used regularly. At the cloud and visibility desk in particular, some rather interesting concepts have been explored.

One advantage of the C&V desks is that they are utilizing AWIPS-2 D2D. As such, there is more flexibility to overlaid images and model data. MVFR and IFR probabilities have been used as a situational awareness tool through the week, but today forecasters explored adding to that data by including radar data as well as a model estimated freezing (0 degree) line.

20160224 1855 UTC IFR probabilities, radar imagery, and the estimated 0 degree line from model guidance (white line)

This displayed allowed forecasters to identify areas of IFR, but also allowed further interpretation of what might be causing those conditions. For example, in northwest Indiana, the freezing line along with radar and the IFR probabilities clearly indicated that snow was the culprit. On the other hand, the Northeast was experiencing rain induced IFR conditions.

As snow and rain are approached differently in the various models, this display gave forecasters a better understanding of current conditions and how they might affect model guidance. This resulted in a higher confidence when working on the ceiling grids for the day.