Both the NearCasting model and the WRF simulated imagery showed scattered "popcorn" convection developing over the Northeast by early afternoon of day 4 of our experiment. By 1800 UTC we began to see several small detections and a number of shallow, low-topped cells were noted on radar. By 1915 UTC, scattered cells were spread over a broad area, causing traffic constrains in both New York and Washington Centers.
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| 120609 1915 UTC CTC and VIS |
Texas has been an area of interest for the majority of the week, as a persistent MCV continues to edge off to the east. While the feature continued to weaken, it was still responsible for several areas of convection in the area of Forth Worth and Houston Centers. We did not anticipate much development until later in the evening, and the area remained clear until Day 4 concluded.
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| 120609 1915 UTC CTC and VIS |
SPC put out a slight risk for the CO/WY/NE area, marking our third area of interest for day 4. While the NearCasting was cloud contaminated and the use limited, the WRF simulated imagery suggested convective initiation around 1800 UTC and looked to cause some potential constraints to Denver Center. We actually began to see CTC detections shortly after 1600 UTC, but the development was rapid as anticipated, and while the cells were scattered enough to avoid a complete ground stop in DEN, there were some traffic constraints in the area.
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| 120609 1915 UTC CTC and VIS |
Our last area of interest yesterday, the Gulf of Mexico and FL, had ongoing convection occurring for most of the day. Using the WRF simulated imagery, we forecasted for additional development in the northern portion of the FL peninsula later in the afternoon. The 1915 UTC Cloud Top Cooling and VIS image below shows the absence of detections and the filled in area of convection that encompassed the entire state of FL and portions of the Gulf by the late afternoon hours. Both Jacksonville and Miami centers ended up with some traffic constrains, especially towards the end of the day.
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| 120607 1915 UTC CTC and VIS |
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