Morning Weather Watch Outlook: 6/7/12

After taking some time for analysis this morning, it looks as if we have four main locations to keep an eye on throughout the rest of the day, including New England, TX, FL, and SE WY/ SW SD/ NW NE.

The situation with New England is similar to yesterday, indicating the chance for scattered, low topped thunderstorms. Given the large amount of cloud remnants across the country, the use of the NearCasting model was limited. However, it does suggest that mid-level instability is somewhat stronger than yesterday, particularly in PA, indicating a better chance of development, and the WRF simulated satellite imagery shows these 'popcorn' type cells triggering throughout the Northeast around 1700 UTC.

Convection is still ongoing in TX, as the persistent MCV continues to slowly slide off to the east, its center now positioned near Forth Worth Center. While there are still some minor deviations, the majority of the convection is in SE TX. Today we look for more development within the "toes" of the MCV, and the WRF simulated imagery suggests initiation around 1800 UTC in the Fort Worth to Houston Center corridor. However, given the continued weakening of the MCV, the impacts to both airports don't look to be as significant as yesterday.

The slight risk out for the Northern Plains and eastern Rockies is our third area of interest for today, particularly SE WY, SW SD, and NW NE, as this is where the WRF simulated imagery is suggesting the most significant convection to develop around 1800 UTC. As with New England, the use of the NearCasting model seems to be limited due to a large amount of cloud contamination.

We will also be keeping an eye on FL and the Gulf of Mexico this afternoon. Currently there is ongoing convection over southern  FL, and in both the Gulf and Atlantic Ocean. This convection looks to continue throughout the day and currently shows a number Overshooting Top (OT) detections. As development progresses, flight routes both over the water and throughout the FL peninsula may be impacted, and both Miami and Jacksonville Center may see some traffic constraints in various gates.