6/6/12 Daily Recap

Our focus at the GOES-R desk for day 3 was on three main areas; New England, the slight risk area in eastern CO and western WY/NE, and Fort Worth Center. However, given that the convection in the CO area did not begin to fire up until our day was ending, we kept our eyes mainly eastward.

As mentioned in the weather watch outlook yesterday, we were keeping an eye on a cumulus field in the New England area where the NearCasting model was suggesting some instability and the SATCAST showed several moderate SOSs. However, the NearCasting CAPE also showed mid-level stability, indicating that the convection would remain shallow. By the end of the day, we were in fact seeing some very shallow topped convection scattered throughout the New England area.

While the impacts to aviation traffic were minimal, it was noted by several forecasters that the Cloud Top Cooling (CTC) algorithm did not pick up on many of these convective cells. After some discussion, it was suggested that perhaps this had to do with the microphysical make up of the clouds. Many of the tops were not very cold, some reaching -20C, resulting in a mixed-phased cloud. Because the CTC algorithm is dependent on a liquid to complete glaciation life cycle, these convective cells may have evaded detection. Again, the impact to aviation traffic in this case was minimal, but another forecaster brought up the fact that this type of situation is not uncommon, particularly in New England and the Pacific NW, so this would definitely be something they'd like to see be addressed.

Because the convection in New England was expected to be minimal, our main focus for the nowcasting portion of the day was in TX, particularly with the persistent MCV and the impacts on Fort Worth Center. As the situation began to develop, the GOES-R desk was able to use a number of products to give those on the traffic flow management desk a heads up on possible problems around Fort Worth Center, which resulted in the issuance of an 'official' AWS for Dallas.

Additionally, the CTC algorithm did well in detecting the convection within the growing squall as it neared the airport, and there were even a few OT detection within several of the cells. Fort Worth Center did end up calling a ground stop to all traffic for several hours of the afternoon due to the weather, so it ended up being a very good case for the experiment.

Another area of impact, not in our areas of interest for the day, was FL and the Gulf of Mexico. The convection there was only scattered, but the reason for the glance in this area was a study of the CTC algorithm in radar sparse areas. Several FAA personnel noted that quite a number of new flight routes will be established over the Gulf of Mexico, and having an algorithm that can track developing convection over these radar sparse areas, as well as other oceanic routes, will be vital.