Morning Weather Watch Outlook: 6/6/12

For those of you unaware, the morning hours of the experiment are used a 'weather watch'. As the last few days have been dedicated to working out bugs and making sure data was flowing correctly and efficiently, this is the first morning that we have been able to have a true weather watch, forecasting for areas of potential convection later this afternoon. Today we are keeping an eye on three main locations...

The first area is New England, particularly PA and upstate NY. The visible imagery, showed the early morning valley fog beginning to dissipate, and the Low IFR from the Low Cloud/Fog product confirmed this as probabilities seemed to decrease throughout the morning. Taking a look at the UAH SATCAST product showed several areas with moderate strength of signal (SOS), indicating at least some agitation and deeper cumulus within the cloud field. While it is highly unlikely that any severe convection will occur here, there is a slight chance for scattered storms, carrying the possibility of impacts to aviation routes within the New England area, particularly from the Boston to NY Centers.

A second area of interest is northern TX and southern OK, associated with the MCV still spinning over Amarillo. Convection is currently on going and is likely to continue to be set off in the "toes" of this chicken foot like feature.  The NearCasting product indicated some instability and the UAH SATCAST showed some moderate SOS for the same area, indicating the potential for convection and possible impacts to routes northwest of Fort Worth Center later this afternoon. However, given the large amount of airspace available for diverts and the relatively lighter northwest traffic area, the impacts thus far have been minimal. We will keep an eye on things as the convection continues to develop into the afternoon.

The final area being watched is eastern CO and WY, and western NE. Currently the area is under a slight risk for severe weather for later in the day. The Nearcasting product also showed some instability over this area with potential for initiation at 19:30 UTC, but as of this moment the radar remains clear. The flight routes through this area are lighter, so the main impacts from the potential weather here would be inbound and outbound flights from Denver Center.