Northeastern US Convection Update

GOES-R demonstration products (UW-CIMSS CTC and NearCasting) have been used this morning with traditional guidance (SREF CCFP) to assist in monitoring convection across the Northeast that may impact the NYC terminals.  The SREF CCFP 3-h thunderstorm probabilities show higher probabilities later this afternoon across southern NY and northern PA (Fig. 1).  In contrast, the 6-h NearCast midlevel CAPE valid at 1800 UTC indicate a large area of midlevel stability in this same area (Fig. 2).  This should allow very shallow convection to form with agitated cumulus but suppress most convection below 20Kft.  The CTC product is also supporting this as cumulus is developing this morning but there has not been any CTC detections in this area.  This is not surprising as the CTC product detects the most vigorous cooling rates and cloud growth.  We will continue to monitor this area, however impacts to aviation should be minimal this afternoon.

Fig. 1 SREF CCFP 3-h thunderstorm probabilities valid at 20120607/2100V012.

Fig. 2 UW-CIMSS 6-h NearCast forecast of 780-500-mb CAPE valid at 20120607/1800.

Fig. 3 Visible imagery and UW-CIMSS Cloud-top Cooling valid at 20120607/1445.