Today has been an active day for turbulence thus far. Many of the reports have been associated with a strong jet moving through the eastern half of the country and in a previous post I outlined the multitude of EDR reports surround ATL. However, earlier this morning there were also several severe turbulence PIREPs issued for northern VA.
The synthetic imagery, particularly the WRF simulated WV, has been accurate thus far this morning and afternoon in picking up the dry intrusion and shear zone along the East Coast associated with a building ridge. Below is the 1500 UTC WRF-ABI band 9 forecast (top), and the 1515 UTC water vapor (middle) and visible imagery (bottom), all overlaid with the 1500 UTC PIREPs. Note the WRF forecast bringing the dry intrusion somewhat further north, but still picking up on the strong shear zone from MS northeast through WV and also the bumpiness along the shear zone, particularly near the bulge of the building ridge over VA.
Forecasters manning the desk commented that the synthetic imagery was 'very helpful in identifying the building ridge and the shear zone', both of which are features indicating a higher likelihood of moderate or greater turbulence. They were also 'very impressed with how well it ran' given that it is a model product, and could definitely see the benefit of having these products as forecast tools.
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| 20130213 1500 UTC WRF-ABI band 9 forecast and 1500 UTC PIREPs |
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| 20130213 1515 UTC water vapor imagery and 1500 UTC PIREPs |
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| 20130213 1515 UTC visible imagery and PIREPs |
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