Cloud Top Cooling/CI utility with AWS in Southern U.S.

An early glimpse at the simulated satellite imagery this morning showed scattered convection firing along the Gulf Coast with further development north into W. TX, N. LA, and S MS and AL by ~1800Z. After 1800Z, the simulated imagery showed a rapid dissipation over the southern most convection by ~2000Z (Figure 1).

Figure 1. 20130813 1300 - 2300Z Simulated WV Imagery

By ~1500 UTC the convection along the Gulf Coast had begun to fire, with another ongoing area extending from OK through AK and W. TN. The aviation concern in this particular area was the corridor between Dallas and Houston Centers, and Atlanta Center. With traffic north somewhat impeded by the convection in OK and traffic south impeded by the developing convection along the coast, most was being routed through N. LA and northern MS and AL (Figure 2).

Figure 2. 20130813 1602 - 1642 Composite Reflectivity and ASDI flight routes. Note the corridor and associated routes between Houston and Dallas Centers and Atlanta Centers, and the convection on either side.

 As more convection was expected to develop here, routing could become a challenge. As such, an Aviation Weather Statement was issued for this area (Figure 4). The GOES-R CI showed some higher probability warming signals of ~50-60% by 1300 - 1400Z along the southern Gulf Coast, with a wider coverage of higher probabilities (60+ %) further north by 1700Z (Figure 3).

Figure 3. 20130813 1615 - 1915 Z GOES-R Convective Initiation

The Cloud Top Cooling algorithm showed the first cooling signals by 1400 - 1500Z along the southern Gulf Coast, with additional, stronger signals being detected by just after 1700Z (Figure 4). By 1800Z there was a wide area of scattered convection that had initiated along the southern states.

20130813 1615 - 1915 Z Cloud Top Cooling

Houston and Memphis are currently experiencing minor delays due to this convection and the additional time needed to route around the ongoing convection between there and Atlanta, but the impact was much reduced due the dissipation of much of the convection in OK and AR and subsequent clear skies in which flights in and out to Atlanta and other East Coast centers can be routed.

In this case the main concern was timing of the development of the scattered convection and also location. The simulated imagery was relatively on time with the initiation of convection, though kept the southern portion slightly further east. Additionally, the CTC and CI provided very helpful situational awareness for those issuing the AWS later in the afternoon.