Simulated Imagery and OTD in JFK/LGA/EWR area

One of today's concern areas today is the Northeast U.S., particularly LGA/JFK/EWR and PHL areas. Earlier this morning ongoing convection forced a number of ground stop programs and delays in all of the above mentioned airports along with those in D.C. The CSIG desk kept this area under its experimental 2-hour outlook at 1555Z, with one SIGMET also issued over the New York area (Figure 1)

Figure 1. 20130813 155Z SIGMETS and experimental 2-hour outlooks

The simulated satellite imagery showed the ongoing convection moving offshore by 2000Z with some scattered development behind. In particular, the imagery showed several stronger cells developing over New Jersey and moving directly into main airspace in the Northeast corridor.

Figure 2 20130813 1300 - 2300 UTC Simulated WV imagery

Radar showed the development of cells over New Jersey already underway by 1245Z this morning, with further development beginning at ~1545Z. This consistent development of relatively strong cells was shown in the Overshooting Top algorithm, which continued to show detections through 14Z (Figure 3).

Figure 3. 20130813 1215 - 1345Z

The consistent OTD signal added confidence for the need to keep an eye on the area for continued SIGMET issuance through next several hours at least.